Positive Association of Aggression with Ambient Temperature.

Background: Relatively little attention has been paid to the potential effects of rising temperatures on changes in human behavior that lead to health and social consequences, including aggression. This study investigated the association between ambient temperature and aggression using assault death data from Seoul, South Korea (1991-2020). Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis based on conditional logistic regression to control for relevant covariates. The exposure-response curve was explored, and stratified analyses were conducted by season and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: The overall risk of assault deaths significantly increased by 1.4% per 1°C increase in ambient temperature. A positive curvilinear relationship was observed between ambient temperature and assault deaths, which flattened out at 23.6°C during the warm season. Furthermore, risk increases were higher in males, teenagers, and those with the least education. Conclusion: This study highlighted the importance of understanding the impact of rising temperatures on aggression in the context of climate change and public health.

Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the effects of hot nights on the cause- and location-specific mortality in a nationwide assessment over 43 y (1973-2015) using a unified analytical framework in the 47 prefectures of Japan. METHODS: Hot nights were defined as days with a) minimum temperature ≥25°C (HN25) and b) minimum temperature ≥95th percentile (HN95th) for the prefecture. We conducted a time-series analysis using a two-stage approach during the hot night occurrence season (April-November). For each prefecture, we estimated associations between hot nights and mortality controlling for potential confounders including daily mean temperature. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the pooled cumulative association. RESULTS: Overall, 24,721,226 deaths were included in this study. Nationally, all-cause mortality increased by 9%-10% [HN25 relative risk (RR)=1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.10; HN95th RR=1.10, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11] during hot nights in comparison with nonhot nights. All 11 cause-specific mortalities were strongly associated with hot nights, and the corresponding associations appeared to be acute and lasted a few weeks, depending on the cause of death. The strength of the association between hot nights and mortality varied among prefectures. We found a higher mortality risk from hot nights in early summer in comparison with the late summer in all regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the evidence of mortality impacts from hot nights in excess of that explicable by daily mean temperature and have implications useful for establishing public health policy and research efforts estimating the health effects of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444.

Long-term trends in mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to air pollution in 10 Japanese cities between 1977 and 2015.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Short-term associations between air pollution and mortality have been well reported in Japan, but the historical changes in mortality risk remain unknown. We examined temporal changes in the mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to four criteria air pollutants in selected Japanese cities. METHODS: We collected daily mortality data for non-accidental causes (n = 5,748,206), cardiovascular (n = 1,938,743) and respiratory diseases (n = 777,266), and air pollutants (sulfur dioxide [SO2], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], suspended particulate matter [SPM], and oxidants [Ox]) in 10 cities from 1977 to 2015. We performed two-stage analysis with 5-year stratification to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality per 10-unit increase in the 2-day moving average of air pollutant concentrations. In the first stage, city-specific associations were assessed using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model. In the second stage, city-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Linear trend and ratio of relative risks (RRR) were computed to examine temporal changes. RESULTS: When stratifying the analysis by every 5 years, average concentrations in each sub-period decreased for SO2, NO2, and SPM (14.2-2.3 ppb, 29.4-17.5 ppb, 52.1-20.6 µg/m3, respectively) but increased for Ox (29.1-39.1 ppb) over the study period. We found evidence of a negative linear trend in the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with SPM across sub-periods. However, the risks of non-accidental and respiratory mortality per 10-unit increase in SPM concentration were significantly higher in the most recent period than in the earliest period. Other gaseous pollutants did not show such temporal risk change. The risks posed by these pollutants were slightly to moderately heterogeneous in the different cities. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to SPM changed, with different trends by cause of death, in 10 cities over 39 years whereas the risks for other gaseous pollutants were relatively stable.

The effects of night-time warming on mortality burden under future climate change scenarios: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The health impacts of climate warming are usually quantified based on daily average temperatures. However, extra health risks might result from hot nights. We project the future mortality burden due to hot nights. METHODS: We selected the hot night excess (HNE) to represent the intensity of night-time heat, which was calculated as the excess sum of high temperature during night time. We collected historical mortality data in 28 cities from three east Asian countries, from 1981 to 2010. The associations between HNE and mortality in each city were firstly examined using a generalised additive model in combination with a distributed lag non-linear model over lag 0-10 days. We then pooled the cumulative associations using a univariate meta-regression model at the national or regional levels. Historical and future hourly temperature series were projected under two scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980-2099, with ten general circulation models. We then projected the attributable fraction of mortality due to HNE under each scenario. FINDINGS: Our dataset comprised 28 cities across three countries (Japan, South Korea, and China), including 9 185 598 deaths. The time-series analyses showed the HNE was significantly associated with increased mortality risks, the relative mortality risk on days with hot nights could be 50% higher than on days with non-hot nights. Compared with the rise in daily mean temperature (lower than 20%), the frequency of hot nights would increase more than 30% and the intensity of hot night would increase by 50% by 2100s. The attributable fraction of mortality due to hot nights was projected to be 3·68% (95% CI 1·20 to 6·17) under a strict emission control scenario (SSP126). Under a medium emission control scenario (SSP245), the attributable fraction of mortality was projected to increase up to 5·79% (2·07 to 9·52), which is 0·95% (-0·39 to 2·29) more than the attributable fraction of mortality due to daily mean temperature. INTERPRETATION: Our study provides evidence for significant mortality risks and burden in association with night-time warming across Japan, South Korea, and China. Our findings suggest a growing role of night-time warming in heat-related health effects in a changing climate. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China, Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project.

Ambient Temperature and External Causes of Death in Japan from 1979 to 2015: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although substantial evidence suggests that high and low temperatures are adversely associated with nonaccidental mortality, few studies have focused on exploring the risks of temperature on external causes of death. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the short-term associations between temperature and external causes of death and four specific categories (suicide, transport, falls, and drowning) in 47 prefectures of Japan from 1979 to 2015. METHODS: We conducted a two-stage meta-regression analysis. First, we performed time-stratified case-crossover analyses with a distributed lag nonlinear model to examine the association between temperature and mortality due to external causes for each prefecture. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates across all prefectures in Japan. In addition, we performed stratified analyses for the associations by sex and age. RESULTS: A total of 2,416,707 external causes of death were included in the study. We found a J-shaped exposure-response curve for all external causes of death, in which the risks increased for mild cold temperatures [20th percentile; relative risk (RR)=1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05,1.12)] and extreme heat [99th percentile; RR=1.24 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.29)] compared with those for minimum mortality temperature (MMT). However, the shapes of the exposure-response curves varied according to four subcategories. The risks of suicide and transport monotonically increased as temperature increased, with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.26, 1.45) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.90), respectively, for heat, whereas J- and U-shaped curves were observed for falls and drowning, with RRs of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26) and 1.95 (95% CI: 1.70, 2.23) for heat and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.26) and 2.33 (95% CI: 1.89, 2.88) for cold, respectively, compared with those for cause-specific MMTs. The sex- and age-specific associations varied considerably depending on the specific causes. DISCUSSION: Both low and high temperatures may be important drivers of increased risk of external causes of death. We suggest that preventive measures against external causes of death should be considered in adaptation policies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9943.

Possible adaptogenic effects of Momordica charantia on high-intensity training-induced alteration in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis.

This study investigated the effects of a drink supplement containing Momordica charantia extract from bitter melon on physical fitness and levels of stress hormones during a four-week exercise training program in a hot environment. Ten male tennis players were orally administrated in a four-week (100 ml, 6 times a day), and the pre- and post-supplementation levels of different physical fitness variables and cortisol, and adrenocorticotropic hormone in plasma were measured at four time-points-before (baseline), during, and after the exercise, and on the next day of the supplementation. The findings showed that the supplementation has significant positive effects on enhancement of physical fitness parameters especially balance (d = 22.10, p = 0.013), flexibility (d = 4.83, p = 0.015), and cardiorespiratory fitness (d = 10.00, p = 0.030). Moreover, the adrenocorticotropic hormone levels were reduced during the exercise, and the cortisol levels showed the decreasing trend during and after the exercise, which was correlated with the change of cardiorespiratory fitness (r = 0.65, p<0.05). These results indicated the possible adaptogenic effects of Momordica charantia extract intake. Based on the findings, we suggest that Momordica charantia could be used as a source of adaptogenic supplement to alleviate the exercise- and environment-induced stress.

Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.

BACKGROUND: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions. METHODS: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies. RESULTS: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting. DISCUSSION: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.

Air quality co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health in South Korea.

Climate change mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have associated costs, but there are also potential benefits from improved air quality, such as public health improvements and the associated cost savings. A multidisciplinary modeling approach can better assess the co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health and provide a justifiable basis for establishment of adequate climate change mitigation policies and public health actions. An integrated research framework was adopted by combining a computable general equilibrium model, an air quality model, and a health impact assessment model, to explore the long-term economic impacts of climate change mitigation in South Korea through 2050. Mitigation costs were further compared with health-related economic benefits under different socioeconomic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Achieving ambitious targets (i.e., stabilization of the radiative forcing level at 3.4 W/m2) would cost 1.3-8.5 billion USD in 2050, depending on varying carbon prices from different integrated assessment models. By contrast, achieving these same targets would reduce costs by 23 billion USD from the valuation of avoided premature mortality, 0.14 billion USD from health expenditures, and 0.38 billion USD from reduced lost work hours, demonstrating that health benefits alone noticeably offset the costs of cutting GHG emissions in South Korea.

Temperature as a risk factor of emergency department visits for acute kidney injury: a case-crossover study in Seoul, South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies show that escalations in ambient temperature are among the risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI). However, it has not been adequately studied in our location, Seoul, South Korea. In this study, we aimed to examine the association between ambient temperatures and AKI morbidity using emergency department (ED) visit data. METHODS: We obtained data on ED visits from the National Emergency Medical Center for 21,656 reported cases of AKI from 2010 to 2014. Time-stratified case-crossover design analysis based on conditional logistic regression was used to analyze short-term effects of ambient temperature on AKI after controlling for relevant covariates. The shape of the exposure-response curve, effect modification by individual demographic characteristics, season, and comorbidities, as well as lag effects, were investigated. RESULTS: The odds ratio (OR) per 1 °C increase at lag 0 was 1.0087 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0041-1.0134). Risks were higher during the warm season (OR = 1.0149; 95% CI: 1.0065-1.0234) than during the cool season (OR = 1.0059; 95% CI: 1.0003-1.0116) and even higher above 22.3 °C (OR = 1.0235; 95% CI: 1.0230-1.0239). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that ED visits for AKI were associated with ambient temperature. Early detection and treatment of patients at risk is important in both clinical and economic concerns related to AKI.

Ambient air pollution and completed suicide in 26 South Korean cities: Effect modification by demographic and socioeconomic factors.

Air pollution has been recently associated with suicide mortality. However, limited studies have examined possible effect modification of the association by various demographic and socioeconomic factors, despite their crucial roles on suicide risk. In 73,445 completed suicide cases from 26 South Korean cities from 2002 to 2013, we studied the association of suicide risk with exposure to particles <10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO), using a city-specific conditional logistic regression analysis with a case-crossover design. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the results. We considered a delayed effect of air pollution by constructing lags of up to 7 days. We explored effect modification by demographic and socioeconomic factors (sex, age, education level, job, and marital status) as well as place of death, method of suicide, and season, through stratified subgroup analyses. Among five pollutants, NO2 showed the strongest association at immediate lags (percent change in odds ratio; PM10: 1.2% [95% CI, 0.2%, 2.3%]; NO2: 4.3% [95% CI, 1.9%, 6.7%]; SO2: 2.2% [95% CI, 0.7%, 3.8%]; O3: 1.5% [95% CI, -0.3%, 3.2%]; and CO: 2.4% [95% CI, 0.9%, 3.8%] per interquartile range increase at lag0). In subgroup analyses by socioeconomic factors, stronger associations were observed in the male sex, the elderly, those with lower education status, white-collar workers, and the married; the largest association was an 11.0% increase (95% CI, 4.1%, 18.4%) by NO2 among white-collar workers. We add evidence of effect modification of the association between air pollution exposure and suicide risk by various demographic and socioeconomic factors. These findings can serve as the basis for suicide prevention strategies by providing information regarding susceptible subgroups.

Exposure to General Anesthesia and Risk of Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing concern that general anesthesia could increase the risk of dementia. However, the relationship between anesthesia and subsequent dementia is still undetermined. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the risk of dementia increases after exposure to general anesthesia. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study analyzing the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort database was conducted of all persons aged over 50 years (n = 219,423) from 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2013. RESULTS: 44,956 in the general anesthesia group and 174,469 in the control group were followed for 12 years. The risk of dementia associated with previous exposure to general anesthesia was increased after adjusting for all covariates such as gender, age, health care visit frequency, and co-morbidities (Hazard ratio = 1.285, 95% confidence interval = 1.262-1.384, time-varying Cox hazard model). In addition, the number of anesthetic agents administered, the number of exposures to general anesthesia, the cumulative exposure time, and the organ category involved in surgery were associated with risk of dementia. CONCLUSION: In light of the increasing societal burden of dementia, careful surveillance for dementia and prevention guidelines for patients after general anesthesia are needed.

Associations between mortality and prolonged exposure to elevated particulate matter concentrations in East Asia.

Previous epidemiological studies regarding mortality and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10µm (PM10) have considered only absolute concentrations of PM10 as a risk factor. However, none have evaluated the durational effect of multi-day periods with high PM10 concentrations. To evaluate the durational effect (i.e., number of days) of high PM10 concentrations on mortality, we collected data regarding 3,662,749 deaths from 28 cities in Japan, South Korea, and China (1993-2009). Exposure was defined as consecutive days with daily PM10 concentrations ≥75µg/m3. A Poisson model was used with duration as the variable of interest, while controlling for daily PM10 concentrations, meteorological variables, seasonal trends, and day of the week. The increase in mortality risk for each additional consecutive day with PM10 concentrations ≥75µg/m3 was 0.68% in Japan (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-1.01%), 0.48% in South Korea (95% CI: 0.30-0.66%), and 0.24% in China (95% CI: 0.14-0.33%). The annual average maximum number of consecutive days with high PM10 in Japan (2.40days), South Korea (6.96days), and China (42.26days) was associated with non-accidental death increases of 1.64% (95% CI: 1.31-1.98%), 3.37% (95% CI: 3.19-3.56%), and 10.43% (95% CI: 10.33-10.54%), respectively. These findings may facilitate the planning of public health interventions to minimize the health burden of air pollution.

Short-term air pollution exposure aggravates Parkinson's disease in a population-based cohort.

Increasing experimental evidence has suggested air pollution as new risk factor for neurological disease. Although long-term exposure is reportedly related to neurological disease, information on association with short-term exposure is scarce. We examined the association of short-term exposure to particles <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO) with PD aggravation in Seoul from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort, Korea during 2002-2013. PD aggravation cases were defined as emergency hospital admissions for primarily diagnosed PD and analyzed with a case-crossover analysis, designed for rare acute outcomes. Pollutants concentrations on case and control days were compared and effect modifications were explored. A unit increase in 8-day moving average of concentrations was significantly associated with PD aggravation. The association was consistent for PM2.5 (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.61 [1.14-2.29] per 10 µg/m3), NO2 (2.35 [1.39-3.97] per 10 ppb), SO2 (1.54 [1.11-2.14] per 1 ppb), and CO (1.46 [1.05-2.04] per 0.1 ppm). The associations were stronger in women, patients aged 65-74 years, and cold season, but not significant. In conclusion, short-term air pollution exposure increased risk of PD aggravation, and may cause neurological disease progression in humans.

Seasonal analysis of the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Northeast Asia.

The constituents and concentrations of pollutants, individual exposures, and biologic responses to air pollution may vary by season and meteorological conditions. However, evidence regarding seasonality of the acute effects of air pollution on mortality is limited and inconsistent. Herein, we examined seasonal patterns in the short-term associations of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10µm (PM10) with daily mortality in 29 cities of three northeast Asian countries. Stratified time-series models were used to determine whether season altered the effect of PM10 on mortality. This effect was first quantified within each season and at each location using a time-series model, after which city-specific estimates were pooled using a hierarchical Bayesian model. In all data sets, 3,675,348 non-accidental deaths were registered from 1993 to 2009. In Japan, a 10µg/m3 increase in PM10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03%, 0.8%) in spring and 0.42% (0.02%, 0.82%) in fall. In South Korea, a 10µg/m3 increase in PM10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.51% (0.01%, 1.01%) in summer and 0.45% (0.03%, 0.87%) in fall, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.96% (0.29%, 1.63%) in fall, and in respiratory disease mortality of 1.57% (0.40%, 2.75%) in fall. In China, a 10µg/m3 increase in PM10 was associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.33% (0.01%, 0.66%) in summer and 0.41% (0.09%, 0.73%) in winter, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.41% (0.08%, 0.74%) in spring and 0.33% (0.02%, 0.64%) in winter, and in respiratory diseases mortality of 0.78% (0.27%, 1.30%) in winter. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary seasonally and geographically.

Validation of the Korean coefficient for the modification of diet in renal disease study equation.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Race and ethnicity are important determinants when estimatingglomerular filtration rate (GFR). The Korean coefficients for the isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equations were developed in 2010. However, the coefficients have not been validated. The aim of this study was to validate the performance of the Korean coefficients for the IDMS MDRD Study equations. METHODS: Equation development and validation were performed in separate groups (development group, n = 147 from 2008 to 2009; validation group, n = 125 from 2010 to 2012). We compared the performance of the original IDMS MDRD equations and modified equations with Korean coefficients. Performance was assessed by comparing correlation coefficients, bias, and accuracy between estimated GFR and measured GFR, with systemic inulin clearance using a single injection method. RESULTS: The Korean coefficients for the IDMS MDRD equations developed previously showed good performance in the validation group. The new Korean coefficients for the four- and six-variable IDMS MDRD equations using both the development and validation cohorts were 1.02046 and 0.97300, respectively. No significant difference was detected for the new Korean coefficients, in terms of estimating GFR, between the original and modified IDMS MDRD Study equations. CONCLUSIONS: The modified equations with Korean coefficients for the IDMS MDRD Study equations were not superior to the original equations for estimating GFR. Therefore, we recommend using the original IDMS MDRD Study equation without ethnic adjustment in the Korean population.

Temperature modifies the association between particulate air pollution and mortality: A multi-city study in South Korea.

Substantial epidemiologic literature has demonstrated the effects of air pollution and temperature on mortality. However, there is inconsistent evidence regarding the temperature modification effect on acute mortality due to air pollution. Herein, we investigated the effects of temperature on the relationship between air pollution and mortality due to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory death in seven cities in South Korea. We applied stratified time-series models to the data sets in order to examine whether the effects of particulate matter <10 µm (PM10) on mortality were modified by temperature. The effect of PM10 on daily mortality was first quantified within different ranges of temperatures at each location using a time-series model, and then the estimates were pooled through a random-effects meta-analysis using the maximum likelihood method. From all the data sets, 828,787 non-accidental deaths were registered from 2000-2009. The highest overall risk between PM10 and non-accidental or cardiovascular mortality was observed on extremely hot days (daily mean temperature: >99th percentile) in individuals aged <65 years. In those aged ≥65 years, the highest overall risk between PM10 and non-accidental or cardiovascular mortality was observed on very hot days and not on extremely hot days (daily mean temperature: 95-99th percentile). There were strong harmful effects from PM10 on non-accidental mortality with the highest temperature range (>99th percentile) in men, with a very high temperature range (95-99th percentile) in women. Our findings showed that temperature can affect the relationship between the PM10 levels and cause-specific mortality. Moreover, the differences were apparent after considering the age and sex groups.